Figures on the effects of drought around the world: ‘This is an unprecedented emergency’

This Thursday, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) released a report on global drought, prepared in collaboration with the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA). And the data says it shows that This is “an unprecedented emergency on a planetary scale.”and that its influence is just beginning to emerge.

The authors of the study decided to present it coincides with a climate summit organized by the United Nations, COP28, which is taking place these days in Dubai. And in that sense, they hope these conversations can lay the groundwork for mitigating the effects of droughts, which they say are one of the hazards that claim the most lives, cause the most economic losses and affect the most sectors of the economy. society. .

“Unlike other disasters that attract media attention, droughts occur quietly, often going unnoticed and do not provoke immediate public and political reaction. “This silent devastation perpetuates a cycle of neglect, leaving affected populations to bear the burden in isolation,” said UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thio.

In this sense, Thiau commented that I hope this post serves as a wake-up call.: “The report says a lot about the urgency of this crisis and strengthening global resilience to it. With droughts increasing in frequency and severity, reservoir levels declining and crop yields declining as we continue to lose biodiversity and spread hunger, transformational change is needed.”

Global Drought Data

This century, 15% to 20% of China’s population will experience more moderate to severe droughts.
By 2100, drought severity in China is projected to increase by 80%.
As of December 2022, 23 million people were considered to be food insecure in the Horn of Africa.
As of May 2023, 5% of the contiguous United States was in severe or extreme drought (based on the Palmer Drought Index).
Drought in the Brazil-Argentina Plata Basin in 2022 was the most severe in 78 years, reducing crop production and affecting global markets.
The area of Europe affected by drought in 2022 was 630,000 km2 (roughly the combined area of Italy and Poland) after the continent experienced its hottest summer and second warmest year on record. This figure is almost four times the average of 167,000 km2 affected by droughts between 2000 and 2022.
Europe has not suffered such a severe drought as in 2022 in 500 years.
170 million people are expected to suffer severe drought if average global temperatures rise 3°C above pre-industrial levels, 50 million more than expected if warming is limited to 1.5°C.

Agriculture and forests

70% of Mediterranean cereal crops were damaged by drought between 2016 and 2018.
33% of South Africa’s pastures have been lost due to drought.
Projected forest losses in the Mediterranean region under 3°C warming could double or even triple the current risk.
The Horn of Africa’s rainy seasons have been poor for five years in a row, causing the region’s worst drought in 40 years (Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia were particularly affected) and contributing to declining agricultural productivity, food insecurity and high food prices.
The average area of EU arable land affected by drought between 2000 and 2022, which contributed to crop failure, was 73,000 km2.
Africa’s economic losses from drought over the past 50 years amount to $70 billion.
Argentina’s soybean production is expected to fall 44% in 2023 compared to the previous five years, making it the smallest crop since 1988/89 and contributing to an estimated 3% drop in Argentina’s GDP by 2023.

Water

The carrying capacity of some vessels on the Rhine has dropped by 75% due to low river levels in 2022, causing major delays in vessel arrivals and departures.
In southern China, 5 million people have been hit by a record drop in water levels in the Yangtze River due to prolonged drought and heat.
In late 2022, 2,000 barges were deployed on the Mississippi River due to low water levels, causing $20 billion in supply chain disruptions and other economic damage.
Accelerating long-term rates of groundwater level decline and water quality degradation in California’s Central Valley watersheds have increased two to five times over the past 30 years due to wind-driven drought.

Social aspects

85% of people affected by drought live in low- or middle-income countries.
Between 2010 and 2020, highly vulnerable regions were 15 times more likely to die from floods, droughts and hurricanes compared to those with very low vulnerability.
The Central American Dry Corridor is home to 1.2 million people in need of food assistance after five years of drought, heat waves and unpredictable rainfall.

Solutions

Up to 25% of CO2 emissions can be offset by nature-based solutions, including soil restoration.
If only half of the animal products consumed today, such as pork, chicken, beef and milk, were replaced with sustainable alternatives, the decline in the use of forests and natural lands for agriculture would be reduced by almost 100% in agriculture worldwide.
Between 20% and 50% of water loss could be reduced if conventional sprinkler systems were replaced by micro-irrigation (drip irrigation), which delivers water directly to plant roots.
By 2030, 20% of EU land and sea areas should be subject to restoration measures, and by 2050 measures will be taken for all ecosystems in need of restoration.
AFR100’s $2 billion investment in African organizations, businesses and government projects announced this year, as well as an additional planned investment of $15 billion to support the restoration of 20 million hectares of land by 2026, will deliver an estimated benefit of $135 billion for approximately 40 million people. People.
Six riparian countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Togo) are already participating in the Volta Basin Flood and Drought Management Project, the first large-scale transboundary application of integrated flood and drought management strategies. , including a comprehensive early warning system for flood and drought forecasting.
About 45% of global catastrophe losses were insured in 2020, up from 40% between 1980 and 2018. However, in many developing countries, catastrophe insurance coverage remains very low.
The resolution of water distribution maps has increased to 50 kilometers thanks to a newly developed method that combines satellite measurements with high-resolution meteorological data, a significant improvement over the previous resolution of 300 kilometers.

Future

The study explains that Several countries are already suffering from hunger caused by climate change.. But not only that. Forced migration is on the rise worldwide; Violent conflicts over water are on the rise, and the ecological foundation that supports all life on Earth is being destroyed “faster than at any other time in known human history.”

“We need to reach binding global agreements to stop periods of drought. The less space the developed human world takes up, the more natural hydrological cycles will remain intact. Restore, rebuild and revitalize all those landscapes that we are degrading and destroying. This is the call of our time. “Urban intensification, active family planning, and curbing rapid population growth are prerequisites for the development of societies that respect planetary boundaries,” the authors note.

In this regard, they note that soil restoration, sustainable land use and environmentally friendly agricultural practices fundamental aspects of increasing global drought resilience. Effective water management is also another key component. As do disaster preparedness and early warning systems, which are equally important.