Recep Tayyip Erdogan maintains its dominant position in the Turkish parliament after two decades in power after a tough fight with an opposition coalition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, decided on May 28 in the second round. Erdogan scored 51.91%, beating his Social Democrat opponent by nearly five points.

This new mandate is opening up in a deeply polarized society, with a growing fragmentation of party support and a global trend: the rise of the extreme right. In the first round, his candidate, sinan oganbecame the third power in the country.

Ultra-nationalism, with a speech that criticized Kılıçdaroğlu’s alliance with the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP, born of a Turkish political movement), stigmatizing them as terrorists and instrumental in Turkish society’s resentment towards Syrian refugees, was a clear winner. A dynamic that will no doubt leave its mark in the next presidential term, with an Assembly in which Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), despite the loss of several MPs, continues to be strong thanks to its rise and coalition with the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP). ).

Some thought that managing the earthquake that rocked the country’s southeast in February, killing more than 50,000 people and causing damage equivalent to 4% of Turkey’s GDP in 2021, according to the World Bank, could be a vote of punishment for Erdogan. Nothing is further from the truth.

There is more pragmatism than passion in voting for Erdogan”

In the south-east of the country, the results were almost the same as in 2018. It is also true that there is more pragmatism than passion behind voting for Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003: the old mantra that better is the value of a known bad guy and the sense of stability that the AKP was able to use in a campaign in which Erdogan was presented as “the right person at the right time”.

A somewhat moved but not fallen Erdogan is now starting to conquer Istanbul and Ankara in 2024, the epicenters that the AKP lost in the 2019 elections. Touched not only by the polarization he has exploited with his alliances, among other things, but also because a situation he inherited from himself: his criticized decisions in this matter contributed to an exponential rise in inflation (according to official figures, at least 45%); the lira fell to a record low.

At the same time, relations between Turkey and the European Union continue to be a subject of debate.

On the EU side, the preliminary conclusions of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission, which highlight Erdogan’s authoritarianism in an already very weakened rule of law, especially since 2016, were taken with concern. The report notes that fundamental rights and freedoms are not fully guaranteed by the Constitution and the legal framework, are being gradually limited and do not have a true independence of the judiciary. In the election campaign, Erdogan did not hesitate to use state resources for self-promotion. In short, a context that “does not fully provide a solid legal basis for holding democratic elections.”

The EU needs to rebuild its relationship with Ankara. An indispensable partner with whom we have many common problems, among which stands out migration management, gradually outsourced to Turkey, especially after the 2015 agreement. But not only that: unity in NATO is also needed to contain the Russian threat, stability of open by different Member States, the search for increasingly needed global partners and, of course, the still frozen but active status of candidate members. Thus, after Erdogan’s victory, European leaders called for a “deepening” of “constructive” relations.

For years, candidate status has served as a platform for betting on the ability to influence: despite the fact that accession has been officially blocked since the Council decided in 2018 not to open new chapters, steps forward and backward led us to believe that the EU there was a tool and a certain margin to require Erdogan to comply with the Copenhagen criteria and respect the rule of law.

At this point, it is imperative that the EU develop a genuine long-term strategy with Turkey that will advance the guarantee of rights and freedoms and end the stalemate in diplomacy with the country, as well as explore opportunities within the framework of the Union of Political Communities. , proposed Emmanuel Macron last year.

Some argue that the reform of the Ankara Agreement, which has been the basis of our relationship almost since its entry into force in 1963, could be an alternative way to address various key issues such as the management of illegal migration, visa liberalization, or a high level of political dialogue. But we must also be honest: any change to deepen or restructure our relationship will not be easy if Erdogan is moving towards far-right authoritarianism.

We must find ways to establish tangible democratic conditions while continuing to develop instruments of cooperation with Turkish civil society and other forms of support such as humanitarian aid. One thing is clear: respect for human rights and the rule of law should be a red line for the EU.

The case of Turkey shows that there can be no dilemma between values ​​and interests in European foreign policy.”

The case of Turkey shows that there can be no dilemma between values ​​and interests in European foreign policy. The election result and Erdogan’s boast that he defeated “terrorist organizations and depraved movements” (meaning LGBT people) suggest that the decline in rights and freedoms will continue. Added to this is Turkey’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention in 2021, which is a particularly worrisome decision given the large number of femicides and other forms of violence against women in the country.

Our values ​​should be our main interests. It is also our responsibility to Turkish civil society, to the entire population, which has been looking at the EU with hope for years. Abandoning them now will have irreversible consequences, including for the future of the EU.

Soraya Rodriguez She is a member of the European Parliament as part of a delegation of citizens.