The official recognition by the Duma of the accession to Russia of the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine has no practical significance on the ground. The counteroffensives of the Ukrainian army continue to be successful, and morale favors the fiasco of the Russians in Liman. This city, in which Russia concentrated an army of many thousands, now became a model of their military defeat: here they were surrounded and destroyed while trying to escape to the east. Now Ukraine is less than 30 kilometers from major occupied centers such as Lisichansk or Severodonetskkeys in the future are moving towards Lugansk.

At the moment, the battle has moved from Lyman to Kremennaya. At the same time, a little further north, Ukraine is moving from Kupyansk to Svatovoalready passed oskill river. Some Russian analysts assured this Monday at the last minute that the military command ordered the evacuation of this city within the next 72 hours due to the possibility of encirclement, as in Liman. The two enclaves play an important role in Russian logistics routes in northern Donbas, and their fall could threaten Russia’s position throughout the area.

“Our troops are withdrawing without a fight, which is due to the impossibility of successfully defending this vast forest area with the available forces,” Igor Girkin wrote on Telegram this afternoon about the Ukrainian offensive on Svatovo. Military channels reported on Monday that Ukrainian forces advanced that day to at least Kislivkaalready halfway between the river and the target city.

Girkin, who in 2014 was the military commander of the Donetsk separatist forces, shared the pessimistic mood hovering over the Russian army: , will not be ready for use. God forbid the enemy fully realize what a significant advantage he now has.

Along the river to Kherson

However, the northeastern front, which began around Kharkov and has already advanced almost 200 kilometers deep into the Donbass, is not the only one where Ukraine is striking at Russia. Another major center is in the south of the country, in the offensive campaign towards Kherson, the restoration of which seems to be a priority for the Kyiv government.

Theater of war for this battle Dnieper, an immense stream that practically divides Ukraine into two halves. The Dnieper flows through Kyiv, heads east to the Dnieper, thence down to Zaporizhia, and west through Kherson, until it empties into the Black Sea at Odessa. It is in this last area that Ukraine has made significant progress in recent hours.

Before the weekend, local forces were fighting close to Osokorovka D Mariana, on the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions, theoretically annexed by Russia. After 72 hours, Ukraine pushed back the invading army. almost 40 km southdown the Dnieper to Dudchany, where Russia tried to stop the Ukrainian advance for several hours. Along the way, the soldiers raised the Ukrainian flag in many liberated cities, such as Kreshchenovka or Mirolyubovka.

In turn, Ukraine is advancing from the west to pin the enemy towards the river, an important natural border that could be a trap for Russia.

Numerous Russian Telegram channels confirm the intensity of the fighting in this region, which Russia now considers key. Losing in Dudchany, despite being a small town of just over 2,000 people, means clearing the way for Ukraine’s advance towards berislavanother 45 km to the south.

After losing Dudchan, Russia can only slow down Ukraine’s advance by destroying infrastructure. On the way to Berislav, the narrow road T-0403 crosses several tributaries or branches of the Dnieper: one 240 m in Dudchany themselves, another near Mylov and the last 450 m in Novokairi. Although these are not bridges per se, but high-altitude, compact and very expensive to demolish dams, the destruction of these roads will leave Ukraine without a direct route to mobilize large troops and heavy equipment.

By late night, pro-Russian sources had already admitted that Ukraine controlled the northern half of Dudchan and that Russian forces were either tearing up the road across the river’s headwaters to prevent a rapid advance or chasing them as they retreated.

However, other reports linked to mercenary groups fighting for Russia on the front lines have argued that the bombings would not stop Ukrainian forces at all. “To put it mildly, it will not be difficult for the enemy to surround the river. The situation is becoming critical,” one such channel reported around midnight.

Unlike bridges, earthen dams are compact and very difficult to blow up. Some of them have small sections of the bridge at the ends, usually several meters long, which are easily overcome during emergency building. The alternative for Ukraine is to bypass these obstacles with small detours of several kilometers around the country.

The easier route to Berislav is centered on the road from the west, which Kyiv is also pushing to close the bridge on the river. Once there, Ukraine will already be less than 50 kilometers from its target and at the gate. New Kakhovkaa real bridge, the only one that connects the two basins of the Dnieper on an almost 300-kilometer channel that runs between Kherson and Zaporozhye.

By controlling that passage, and having already stepped on the other side, Ukraine can threaten Russia with an operation envelope over Kherson, in addition to being located at the entrance to Crimea and seeking to regain control over its entire Black Sea coast. However, Russia’s military strength in the area is very important, with estimates of more than 20,000 troops ready to defend the enclave.

Doubts about newly annexed borders

Military defeats in Ukraine are getting worse and worse for public opinion in Moscow, as they are already taking place in the territories officially annexed by the Duma. These are battles not on foreign land, but on land considered our own after the official annexation of four regions.

Russia considers in the case of Donetsk that “the borders of the territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic are determined by the borders of the territory that existed on the day of its formation and the day of its admission to the Russian Federation,” the article says. a document confirming the consent to receive the territory, as it became known to the Russian agency TASS.

This document also states that the borders of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson will be treated in the same way. In addition, he warns that the boundaries of these territories with other foreign states “will be the state border of the Russian Federation.”

For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia’s repeated defeats at the front show that “Russia made a mistake by starting a war against Ukraine.” In a last-minute video, the leader assured that only “fanatics” failed to see that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a “senseless war that Russia cannot win.”