“The Italians have clearly pointed to a centre-right government led by Fratelli d’Italia.” The Italian election was won by Giorgia Meloni (Rome, 1977), leader of the Fratelli d’Italia, a party born from the ashes of the post-fascist Italian social movement. Thanks to her electoral success, which by all indications will make her the first female head of government in Italy, the centre-right coalition she forms with Fuerza Italia, led by Silvio Berlusconi, and the League, led by Matteo Salvini, won a majority in Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Europe is waiting for a government that could be led by Georgia Meloni, an EU ally of Hungarian Viktor Orban and Pole Mateusz Morawiecki. Europe of the Fatherland wins the heavyweight division.

The centre-right coalition won both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. It is beneficial for them to present themselves together, which is rewarded by an electoral law called Rosatellum. In the Senate, the center-right will have 114 to 122 seats out of 200, the center-left 37 to 43, the Five Star Movement 23 to 27, and the third pole (Italy Viva y Acción), between nine and eleven, according to the third projection of the SWG.

In the Chamber of Deputies the centre-right will have from 230 to 244 deputies out of 400 of the total; the left between 75 and 89, the 5 Star Movement between 46 and 54, and the third pole between 18 and 22. 80% of the single-member constituencies were captured by the conservative bloc.

We will manage for everyone. We want to bring people together. We want Italians to be proud to be Italians.”

Georgia Meloni, leader of the Fratelli d’Italia

Meloni waited until 2:30 am to present herself as the winner. “The situation in which Italy and the EU find themselves is particularly difficult and requires a calm climate. I’m sorry I didn’t. The challenge is to get citizens to trust institutions again. Our goal is to glorify institutions. This is a night of pride, tears and hugs. We are not at the point of arrival, this is the starting point. Italy has chosen us, and we will not betray her. We will manage for everyone. We want to bring people together. We want Italians to be proud to be Italian by waving the tricolor flag,” Meloni said, thanking his coalition partners, Força Italia and La Liga, for the work they have done despite their poorer-than-expected results. expected.

With Meloni at the helm, Italy will have the most conservative government since the end of World War II. We’ll have to wait until the end of October. On the 13th, the chambers meet and their presidents are elected. President Mattarella would then convene the parties and order the formation of a government. Meanwhile, Mario Draghi will remain as head of the Council of Ministers.

Meloni, who are the first to congratulate, well reflect her ideological coordinates and how she is going to position herself in the European Union. Meloni is president of the group of conservatives and republicans in the European Parliament, which includes the Polish Law and Justice Party and the Spanish Vox.

With their victory, the Conservatives and Republicans in the European Parliament will be the second most populous, representing 50% more than popular Europeans. After midnight, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Spanish Santiago Abascal sent their tweets.

On Friday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said of political developments in Italy: “If things go in a difficult direction, we have the tools, as in the case of Poland and Hungary.” Salvini demanded an apology from von der Leyen for what he sees as interference.

Joan Bardella, National Regrouping MEP, Marine Le Pen, wrote: on twitter: “The Italians taught the European Union a lesson in humility, which through the mouth of von der Leyen intended to impose a vote. No threat can stop democracy: the peoples of Europe are raising their heads and taking their fate into their own hands!

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz clearly favored DP leader Enrico Letta. And French President Emmanuel Macron is also not among the allies over Meloni’s role.

From 4% to government in four years

Georgia Meloni led the Fratelli d’Italia, which retained the MSI tricolor flame on its logo, in ten years from the 1.96% it won in its first election as soon as it was founded in 2013 to 26% in this election. In 2018, the party remained at a disappointing 4%. This is a historical record that bears his name.

Now he has benefited from the fact that the electorate is tired of the other parties that already ruled. In fact, the Fratelli d’Italia is the only party not included in the unity government led by Mario Draghi, who fell last July.

Meloni combines being a politician known to the electorate with a proposal that has yet to be passed. “God, country and family” – these are its principles. She is an advocate for Italy First, right-wing populist, anti-immigration, anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage and what she calls the “unique thought” of the left. In the election campaign, she tried to give herself a more moderate image and insistently assured that democracy was not in danger with her at the helm.

The results of the Fratelli d’Italia are better than those of the Fuerza Italia and the League combined, so Georgia Meloni will have to run for the centre-right coalition for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers. In fact, Liga Salvini drops to 8.9%, well below the 17% that was set as a target. In theory, this should mean his farewell as a leader.

There has been a transfer of votes from the League to the Fratelli d’Italia, which do not differ much ideologically. Meloni is one of the three coalition parties most openly critical of Russia and in favor of sending weapons to Ukraine.

Silvio Berlusconi with 8% is already acting as a guarantor of the coalition against the suspicions of Brussels. Antonio Tagiani, former President of the European Parliament, told TG7 that “Force Italia will play a fundamental role in government and in the international arena. Berlusconi will play a role father’s family“. He assured that the new government will be Atlanticist, like the previous one. Tajani is one of the names that sound like foreign minister.

Berlusconi was the one who opened the doors of Alianza Nacional, MSI’s heir to Fratelli d’Italia, in his government. Meloni was youth minister in 2008 in the government of Berlusconi, who is the latest prime minister to lead a party that won elections more than a decade ago. The rest were the result of post-election pacts or technocratic decisions.

Failure of the Democratic Party

The left bloc paid dearly for its split: the main party, the Democratic Party, recorded its worst ever record with 19.3% in the House. Enrico Letta, leader of the DP, is on the brink. The central left added to the PD only “More Europe” by Emma Bonino and “Civil Commitment” by Luigi de Mayo. The outgoing foreign minister, a former 5-star leader, failed miserably, maintaining a meager 0.6%. Di Maio will not be in Parliament.

We will play the role of the opposition with courage and determination.”

Giuseppe Conte, 5 star leader

The 5 Star Movement, led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, surpassed the most optimistic expectations, becoming the third most voted party with 15.5%.. Di Maio broke with him over his opposition to sending weapons to Ukraine, and Conte later demanded more social improvements from the government. His commitment to protecting citizens’ incomes was offset in the elections. “We have returned. We will play the role of the opposition courageously and decisively,” Giuseppe Conte said, stressing that 5 Stars is the leading political force in the south of the country. He assured that he would watch for any illiberal drift.

The so-called third pole, the union of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and former Industry Minister Carlo Calenda, topped 8%. If they teamed up with the DP (their leader was Renzi), the left would have more options.

Turnout was lower than ever, at 63.9%. This is nine points less than in 2018. It was especially low in the south and in the traditional left bastions. “The dissatisfaction is huge and could be due to political fatigue or the fact that they didn’t seem like a competitive election. Everyone knew the right would win, and that discouraged the vote,” says Daniel V. Guisado, political scientist and co-author Salvini and Meloni. Children of the same rage.

Visegrad group gaining weight

According to Daniel V. Guisado, “Italy’s strategy will now be to bet on the Europe of nations, which is a prophetic way of saying that Italy will be in Europe for the good, but never for the bad.” This is a strategy that will move it away from the Franco-German axis and bring it closer to the Visegrad Group. There will be disputes with Brussels and red flags when the Italian government starts to disregard basic rights such as abortion, asylum or migrants’ rights.” He adds that there will also be a fight over the terms set by the recovery funds.

There will be disputes with Brussels and red flags when basic rights issues like abortion or asylum are ignored.”

Daniel W. Stew, political scientist

In any case, Italy is not Poland or Hungary, and the political system is not the same. The role of the President of the Republic is vital. He can even veto ministers or reject a candidate for head of government. “Italy needs the EU and Salvini and Meloni know that. Because of debt and deficit. The Italian political system and international alliances can slow down some of the government’s proposals,” said Andrea Betti, professor of international relations at the Pontifical University of Comillas.

Italy is the third economic power in the EU and one of the founding countries. These conditions change its role. In turn, in the Fuerza Italia coalition, he assures that he will be vigilant not to go beyond certain red lines. According to Andrea Noferini, CEI Professor of International Relations and UPF. “This historical heritage is a guarantee. To this day, with Italy on the brink, institutional and European powers are finding ways to get back on track. There is a safety valve that works in case of dangerous skids. This is not the case in Hungary or Poland.”

Georgia Meloni, who describes herself as a soldier for ultra-conservative values, won the election battle, and all indications are that she will go down in history as the first woman to head a government in Italy. The moment is critical for Italy and Europe due to the looming recession and the war Putin is waging against Ukraine with constant threats to the US and its allies. The US and Europeans must be able to trust Italy, while Italy must not doubt its commitment to the West. “The time for responsibility is starting,” Georgia Meloni said in her speech.