The enormous consequences of climate change, which Expected to appear in Europe later this century, they were expected and became commonplace. This is according to a new study published this Thursday in the journal. Connection Earth and environmentwhich suggests there is a greater than 10% chance of two consecutive years of extreme heat between 2050 and 2075 and five years of megadroughts across the Old Continent.

The authors note that the European climate is “potentially prone” to successive extreme weather events due to the influence of the North Atlantic. But they claim that It remains unclear how global warming increases the likelihood that they are happening. And it’s also unclear when they might become as extreme as predicted by the end of this century. That’s why they wanted to investigate it.

“We find that even with moderate warming, heat and drought levels projected for the end of the century something that was almost impossible to achieve 20 years ago, will reach a probability of 1 in 10 already in the 2030s,” the authors specify. “Between 2050 and 2074, the likelihood of two consecutive years of extreme temperatures, which is unprecedented in human history, is greater than 10%. And five-year megadroughts across Europe are becoming likely,” they added. Additionally, all forms of heat stress (when the air is hot and humid during the day or hot at night) could reach a 10% chance between 2030 and 2039.

The authors used a variety of simple and complex indicators of heat stress and extreme drought, as well as a set of 100 simulations from the Max Planck Institute’s Large Ensemble climate model. And they did using warming of 2.25°C above pre-industrial levels as a benchmark. towards the end of what they consider to be a “moderate” century.

Importance of the North Atlantic

With this data, as they explain, There could be “decades of thermal stress” from 2040 onwards. On the continent. But if the waters of the North Atlantic warm up, this process could accelerate by leaps and bounds. “The range of possible heat and drought stresses accumulated over an entire decade is increasing to the point that experiencing extreme heat and drought typical of turn-of-the-century climates may be possible in Europe from 2040″, say the researchers.

If waters warm, the authors estimate that global temperatures expected by the end of the century The likelihood of their occurrence will double from 2030. In addition, multi-year periods of extreme heat and drought in Europe will increase significantly.

Simulators

The study results are based on MPI-GE modeling, which is consistent with IPCC predictions for heat and drought data. For changes in precipitation, the model showed a tendency to drying out in the May-October season, the results are comparable to those of other climate models. The authors explained that MPI-GE is a robust model that provides low-probability “event sampling” that is highly accurate in terms of internal variability and allows for the study of various factors at large scales and over the long term.

Results of this study They are also consistent with previous studies regarding heat waves.r, both in terms of the regions in which they occurred (and where the greatest changes are expected to occur) and in terms of the intensity of the observed events, which will be more extreme.

However, There are large differences in the direction and magnitude of drought changes between models. due to precipitation deficits and lower signal-to-noise ratios in these changes in Europe. Something that highlights the importance of comparing this information with other climate models.