The UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) kicks off this Thursday in Dubai. And it will be despite many controversies, with many expectations posted on it. The climate agenda is gaining momentum and this year’s meeting is expected to be key to discussing where we are and deciding what policies should be adopted in the future. But it won’t be easy at all.

“We saw it There is huge mistrust between different countries“Says Javier Andaluz, head of climate change at Ecologuestas en Acción. “There is a big clash between northern countries, which are very concerned about cutting emissions, and southern countries, which have a relatively low carbon footprint. commitments that were promised many years ago but have yet to be fulfilled,” he adds.

Andalusian is convinced that The highlight of this year’s summit will be the dialogue on global development. during which all countries will discuss whether they are achieving the goals set out in the Paris Agreement and propose possible additional measures. In this sense, a big topic of discussion will be whether to set a deadline for the use of fossil fuels and whether to allow those entities with conflicts of interest on this issue to continue participating in the summit.

“Reaching consensus with nearly 200 countries requires excellent diplomatic skills. This is why it is important that in the final months and during this first week of the COP, the Emirati presidency earns the trust of all countries. And the more transparent and inclusive this process is, the better. Closed-door meetings involving only a few countries or take-it-or-leave-it proposals are not popular,” says Linda Kalcher, executive director think tank Pan-European strategic perspectives.

The expert notes that although at these meetings a lot of attention is usually paid to the positions of large countries such as the USA or China, in fact It is often the “small island developing states” that set the bar for ambition.. And remember that in recent editions, countries like Turkey, the US, China and India have been very resistant to some agreements.

But before detailing each bloc’s expectations from this summit, let’s talk about Spain. Because, among many intersecting interests, our country also plays an important role front. According to Marta Torres Gunfaus, principal climate and energy researcher at IDDRI, there are primarily two things at stake.

“On the one hand, Spain’s leadership qualities in the EU while it holds the presidency of the European Council, and also how partner Latin America’s strategy is to position itself as a global leader in promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency,” says Torres Gunfaus. “On the other hand, Spain occupies a strategic position in the debate on the restructuring of global production chains. and the role of its economic actors,” he says.

Europe

“Europe has become a pioneer in the fight against climate change. It has benefited from first mover advantage, but continuing to reap the benefits of the transition to a green economy – and protecting European citizens from the worst consequences – depends on all countries coming together to move faster,” says Alex Scott, head of geopolitics and geopolitics E3G. Climate diplomacy program.

Scott remembers this EU prioritized reaching a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels. But he points out that getting Saudi Arabia, Russia and even China on board will not be easy, so coalitions will need to be built with ambitious island states and African countries. “Additionally, he points out that the Union needs to ensure that other countries offer loss and damage funding and other climate measures, and that the UK “puts its credibility on the line” after its Prime Minister Rishi Sunak abandoned his climate measures in September.

Chiara Martinelli, Director of CAN Europe, makes the same point: “The EU is an important player and has a decisive role to play at COP28. It needs to listen to and work hard with other countries to ensure greater ambition and fairness in tackling the climate crisis. “This includes delivering an ambitious and fair Global Assessment that puts the world on track to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and agree to a complete transition away from fossil fuels.”

Martinelli also believes the EU should step up its efforts in climate finance negotiations to ensure support the southern countries and move away from the US position, which could play a “very detrimental” role. And he insists he will have to back up his words with domestic action, such as imposing fair taxes to force big polluters to pay.

North America

Friederike Roeder, Vice President of Global Advocacy at Global Citizen: predicts the US and Canada will play key roles in the fossil fuel ban debate, a milestone that, if confirmed, could be called “historic”: “Whether this will be the case will largely depend on these two countries, which are members of the G20 and both are producers of fossil fuels and are slowly moving towards decarbonization economy. “But they may be on the right side of history, supporting its gradual cessation.”

Roeder also clarifies that both the US and Canada are expected to increase climate change funding for the poorest and most vulnerable countries. And now both are “falling behind” in their contribution to the $100 billion promised in 2009.. Their “authority as world leaders aware of their responsibility” depends on this.

For his part, Torres Gunfaus notes that North America is risking its leadership position in global governance, and in particular the strength of its relations with China and other emerging economies such as India. But also its credibility in terms of its domestic measures, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (which may be a benchmark for many countries) and its actions in the gas and oil sector. hydraulic fracturing.

South America

“This cop is also This is critical for Latin America as the effects of climate change are increasingly felt there., as, in fact, is happening all over the world. The window to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees is closing. And this means, above all, that we must end fossil fuels and at the same time provide massive funding to be able to complete the transition and cover adaptation, losses and damages,” concludes Roeder.

In this sense, the expert notes that Latin America is taking the lead, citing countries such as Colombia, Antigua and Barbuda and Barbados as examples. In addition, it also details that There are high hopes for the start of Brazil’s G20 presidency on December 1., with President Lula’s speech at the COP. But remember that Latin America’s position is not at all homogeneous, as shown by the recent elections in Argentina, which brought climate denier Javier Miley to power.

“South America It will have to learn everything it can from COP28 to confront the growing social and economic crisis., and especially high levels of debt and structural poverty. “They must explore what types of international cooperation agreements can be concluded and, above all, what structural changes in this cooperation (including access to finance) can be achieved in order to respond to this situation and at the same time increase the resilience of their societies and economies. Gunfaus Towers ends.

Africa

For Scott, Africa has a great opportunity to secure a green development path, starting with COP28.. But the expert insists that proposals for a package of targets to accelerate the transition from fossil energy to clean energy must be accompanied by clear goals for how investment will be mobilized, especially for developing countries.

On the other side The loss and damage fund and financing mechanisms are also critical. for African countries affected by increasing climate disasters. In this sense, countries will need to agree on how to create the fund – a preliminary agreement on this issue was reached last month – and commit to providing it. Because given the huge gaps in adaptation financing, the COP28 global assessment provides an opportunity for African countries to reach global agreement on how financing gaps will be filled.

Middle East

Torres Gunfaus notes that this region will play a key role. It cannot be otherwise, given that it is one of the most dependent on fossil fuels, which will be discussed. In this sense, the expert is convinced that these countries They must justify their position very well in the context of their commitment to the Paris Agreements.. In particular, the Gulf countries must articulate a “narrative” for the international community that also serves their parties concerned National

Drought in countries such as Iraq and Syria shows how affected the region is by climate change. Syria, according to Roeder, is the second country with the highest risk of climate disaster.. But at the same time, the Gulf countries are among the largest producers of fossil fuels.

“Manufacturers in the Middle East and elsewhere need to undertake a major course correction. With investment in renewable energy expected to triple by 2030, The supply and demand for fossil fuels must decline significantly. Agreeing on renewable energy targets without a clear path to eliminating all fossil fuels will mean this COP has failed,” concludes Roeder.

Asia

As Scott explains, Russia has already expressed opposition to agreeing on global goals for the energy transition.. For its part, China was more open in its joint statement with the United States, but opposed being asked to contribute to the financing of losses and damages and hinted that it was already providing aid to other countries.