The Paris Agreements, signed in December 2015, stipulate that we must limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But If we continue at this rate, global temperatures will rise by 2.7°C by 2100.. And this poses a “catastrophic threat” that leaves the lives of entire generations, present and future, “hanging in the balance.”

This is stated in a new report from a British magazine. Lancet, published this Wednesday. This is a full-fledged research work in which they took part 114 global experts from 52 institutions, including several from the UN. (eg World Health Organization and World Meteorological Organization). The report, prepared by University College London (UK), analyzes the link between health and climate change, and comes just two weeks before COP28.

Among the study’s main findings is that attempts to seriously mitigate the effects of climate change are “failing.” And you don’t have to wait to see the consequences. In 2022 On average, people were exposed to extreme temperatures for 86 days, which “posed a risk.” for Your health”. And 60% of those days were at least twice as likely to occur due to climate change. In parallel, heat-related deaths among people over 65 increased by 85% between 2013 and 2022 compared to 2022. period from 1991 to 2000.

This situation also had an impact in economic terms. In 2022, the total cost of economic losses associated with extreme climate events was estimated at $264 billion (an increase of 23% compared to the period 2010-2014). And extreme temperatures are also responsible for the loss of 490 billion potential work hours worldwide in 2022 (an increase of almost 42% compared to the period 1991-2000).

Considering that already in 2023 The planet experienced its highest temperatures in 100,000 years., and all continents were breaking records, the situation is likely to continue. And if the temperature rise eventually reaches 2°C, the consequences will be many.

Firstly, mortality from heat will increase by 370%. Loss of working time will increase by 50% worldwide. Fatal infectious diseases, such as those caused by bacteria. Vibrio or dengue fever will be caused. And, An estimated 525 million more people may be food insecure for the period from 2041 to 2060, which will increase the risk of malnutrition.

“We can already see it Due to unprecedented heat, a human catastrophe is unfolding., devastating droughts, rising levels of hunger, increased outbreaks of infectious diseases, and deadly hurricanes and floods. The continued expansion of fossil fuel use is a death sentence for millions of people. There is no justification for the continued delay in action to combat climate change,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in response to the publication of the report.

Who is responsible?

“With emissions of 1,337 tons of carbon dioxide per second, we are not even close to keeping climate hazards within acceptable levels for our health systems. The human cost of inaction is enormous, and we cannot afford to ignore it. Here. We pay with our lives. With every second we delay, the path to a more livable future becomes more difficult, and adaptation becomes more costly and difficult,” said Dr. Marina Romanello, Executive Director Lancet countdown at University College London.

Authors of the report They condemn the “negligence” of governments, companies and banks., who continue to pour money into the oil and gas industry as the damage to the planet approaches the “point of no return.” That is, the world is moving in the wrong direction.

“The fossil fuel industry is receiving more investment and credit.. 20 of the world’s oil and gas giants have increased their forecasts for fossil fuel production compared to last year, which will push greenhouse gas emissions above levels consistent with a 173%.5°C rise in temperatures by 2040 (up from a 112% increase expected in their 2022 strategies), the authors say.

“In the same time, Countries with fewer resources are excluded from the transition process clean energy sources, and unequal access to them has left the most vulnerable communities dependent on polluting fuels,” they added.

With this in mind, Professor Stella Hartinger, Director of the Regional Center for South America Lancet countdownexpressed concern: “Adaptation efforts cannot keep pace with the impacts of climate change. We must go one step further and focus on primary prevention. We have to Address the root causes of climate change with rapid acceleration strategies mitigation across all sectors. Unless governments act accordingly once and for all, despite these warnings, the situation will get much, much worse.”

Green shoots

At the same time, the report points to the enormous health benefits we would gain if we decided to act decisively against climate change. But for this they warn, Helping poor countries accelerate their transition to clean energy is key. and energy efficiency. Something they say will provide immediate health benefits while reducing social, economic and health inequalities.

Another priority should be improving air quality, which could prevent many of the 1.9 million annual deaths. which occur directly from exposure to polluted outdoor air associated with fossil fuel use (and millions more deaths due to polluted indoor air). Changing lifestyles and choosing active, social, electrical and affordable alternatives can also help and improve people’s health by encouraging physical activity.

But the changes that can be made actually cut across all areas. The authors explain: “Accelerating the transition to healthier, low-carbon diets would prevent 12 million related deaths annually, and It would also cut agricultural sector emissions from red meat and milk production by 57%. “All of these advances will also contribute to healthier populations, reducing the burden on health care systems, minimizing emissions in the health care industry, and improving health equity.”

Although the situation is difficult, Lancet also see some green shoots. What they call “encouraging signs”. For example, the number of deaths related to air pollution from burning fossil fuels has decreased by almost 17% since 2005 (with 80% of this decline the result of efforts to reduce pollution caused by burning coal). Or that global investment in clean energy grew by 15% in 2022, and renewables accounted for 90% of electricity capacity growth in 2022. Not everything is lost.