About two weeks ago, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a major counter-offensive that recaptured territories conquered by Russia in vulnerable areas of the country, such as Kherson and Donetsk. The effective actions of the soldiers of President Volodymyr Zelensky gave hope for a turning point in the war.

Russian attack in Zaporozhye this Sunday (9) hit a residential building – Photo: Marina Moiseenko/AFP/ND

However, at the same time that the Ukrainian army recaptured certain areas of the country, Russia, after a referendum, annexed four main regions of the neighboring country: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporozhye. However, Vladimir Putin’s tactics were not legitimized by the West, which still recognizes these territories as Ukrainian.

All of these moves in this chess game between Kyiv and Moscow, which are covered by the world’s media, raise questions such as who is winning the war or whether Ukrainian resistance comes as a surprise.

For Luis Felipe Osorio, professor of international relations at the UFRRRJ (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro), it is difficult to describe the war as there is no prior knowledge of the two countries’ goals in the conflict. Nevertheless, the expert emphasizes the West’s support for Ukraine.

“It is extremely important to note that the Ukrainians are counting on sending weapons and external funding, mainly from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) through the United States, which increase local military power and further prolong the conflict, making it more exhausting, perhaps,” says Osorio R7 .

According to the internationalist, Western support goes beyond the military side and reaches the major media. For this reason, the Russians may ultimately avoid major offensives or more forceful retaliation against Kyiv.

“Everything that happens there has a great resonance, rejection and discussion, that is, it is greatly enhanced. For the same reason, extreme caution is evident in the offensive actions of the Russian side, which cares not to be completely isolated from world public opinion. This limits the progress and pace of operations too much.”

Political scientist and professor at Insper (Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa) Leandro Consentino believes that Putin did not expect such a large support for Ukraine, especially given the lack of political popularity of the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky. A career comedian, the Ukrainian leader took office after playing the president of Ukraine on a TV show.

“The West read that it was a very difficult moment, that the state of Ukraine was a sovereign state, that it existed as a buffer between Russia and the West and could not be at the mercy of violating Russian sovereignty.” says Consentino R7.

Professor Insper believes the Russian annexation is a way for Putin to secure his victories, as well as make the area his own territory and therefore turn any Ukrainian offensive into a direct attack on Moscow.

“[Putin] I would say that he defends his territory, and does not attack someone else’s. You see that it’s the other way around. I mean, it changes the strategy, it changes fundamentally, because you make it a strategy to protect sovereignty, not to attack others.”

Convocation of reservists

At the end of September, Putin announced the call for 300,000 reservists and later called for another 200,000 to join the Russians fighting in Ukraine. The President of Russia did not specify exactly what functions these new soldiers would have, but the action caused outrage among part of the local population.

In addition to protests on the streets of the country’s main cities, the Russian president has seen thousands of men flee Russia to avoid mandatory military service.

Consentino understands that if Putin’s army had moved through Ukraine with ease, as Russian intelligence suggested at the beginning of the war, then most certainly these people would not have been heading into Ukrainian territory. The political scientist also highlights the protests of the population for the mobilization of reservists.

“While the Russians were rooting for their army there, it’s one thing, quite different than the fact that they are now preparing directly for the front or sending their children,” explains Professor Insper. “Putin has taken a very difficult step that could cost a lot of domestic support.”

Osorio, in turn, sees the mobilization of another 500,000 people as a way Russia has found to stabilize the annexed regions, bringing to these places full of Russian speakers the guarantee of Putin’s expansion, not Zelensky’s.

“As far as I understand, the reservists will not be called to the front, but will patrol and guard the newly annexed territories, ensuring their protection and reorganization. In short, it’s like military logistics.”

Professor UFRRRJ still uses a deck of cards as an analogy to end the interview. According to what the internationalist said, at this stage of the war the cards are being shuffled for the conflict to be renewed.

“Russia’s trump cards have increased, which means that she can either stop playing, content with what she has already achieved, or double down to further exploit her advantages, and who knows, have money to sit at the main table and quit a challenge to the big players (big imperialist powers). If you had Putin’s letters, what would you do?” concludes Osorio.