Any study published at this time in Santa Catarina is a diagnosis that is close to fiction and very far from the figures of the investigation, whatever the comparison with the 2018 elections.

The first observation of leaders and observers of the elections four years ago and the scenario of 2022: the elections are accelerated for the first time, with five out of eight candidates having the opportunity to go to the second round, due to biographies, party or coalition structure and political-administrative experience.

Second: when names are sprayed with a certain balance, the election of a new governor will not take place in the first round on October 2.

Third, surveys conducted in 2018 call for caution when analyzing surveys. Four years ago, Carlos Moises, then still in the PSL, had 1% voting intentions at the end of August. In September, it went up by 4%. And in the second round, he defeated Gelson Mericio from the PSD, gaining 71.09% of the vote. Another detail: Mauro Mariani, the candidate for the MDB, the largest and most structured party in the state, ran the primaries in September. And missed the second round.

Fourth, the election phenomenon registered in 2018 in Santa Catarina and several states of the country should not be repeated this year. This means that, according to the testimony, there should not be a complete reissue of the 17 – 22 this year – that guaranteed the election of Carlos Moises. PL Senator Jorginho Melu would certainly benefit from having his name tied to 22 and President Bolsonaro’s declared support, but hardly by the same percentage as in 2018.

Finally, test the power of social media in this election. Radio and television, especially debates and commercial inserts in programs, tend to influence votes.

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