In 1982, the government of the National Reorganization Process, as Argentina’s last civil-military dictatorship was called, launched a military offensive against the Falkland Islands, or Malvinas. The reason was to achieve internal and external projection of the civil-military regime of legitimation, although they presented it as an anti-imperialist war in favor of the homeland, since Argentina’s claim to sovereignty over the islands under British rule was a demand shared by both the right and the left.

The president Leopoldo Galtieri At that time there was a big mass bath with a famous speech in which he said: “If they want to come, let them come, we will fight them.” And indeed, Great Britain went, Argentina resisted and lost. Soon after, the military junta fell and took power democratically. Raoul Alfonsin.

Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro organized on Sunday, December 3, an advisory and binding plebiscite on the sovereignty of Guyana Esequiba, a region that represents more than half of Guyana and which has been claimed by Venezuela since the late 19th century, based on the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899. Caracas claims it for sovereign reasons because this territory was part of the Captaincy General of Venezuela in Spanish times, and the border with the Dutch was not defined. Thus, there was a territory that for thirty years was not clear whether it was in Dutch Guiana (Suriname) or in Venezuela.

Great Britain took advantage of this. buffer zone to found British Guiana, and they drew up boundaries that were considered unclear. In fact, until British migration came to the region, the Venezuelans did not file a claim. The boundary claimed by the British was drawn by a naturalist Robert Hermann Schomburgkand little by little the British began to regard the rivers as the border of British Guiana.

As we can see, this is not an “oil well” issue, as is sometimes simplified these days, since in 1899 there was no capacity to extract oil from the sea, but rather an internal issue of Venezuelan national claims. , it doesn’t matter who rules for decades. All Caracas governments maintained, with varying intensity, a position in favor of Essequibo’s claims to Venezuela.

But it’s time to wonder why Maduro is now saying this. The regime is in a difficult situation, in a situation of delegitimization accelerated by opposition primaries in which 2.4 million people were mobilized to participate. Thus, the Maduro regime believes that the time has come to rattle its sabers and wrap itself in the flag.

The Venezuelan leader seems to forget that sanctions were eased because of oil sales. With her move to Essequibo, she is jettisoning the breath of air that the international community gave her due to nervousness about the 2024 presidential elections. Maria Corina Machado is on the rise and, according to all polls, can defeat Nicolás Maduro and the patriotic Pole in the elections. So much so that prosecutors issued arrest warrants for several of his employees. In this context, the regime undertook an adventure to recapture Essequibo and even threatened war in order to realize its sovereignty. Maduro is doing the same thing as Argentine General Galtieri, who, having seen the consequences of the 1982 FIFA World Cup, decided to stir up the national consciousness in order to stay in power through war.

The opposition played its cards well and did not support the regime. He believes that Essequibo is Venezuelan, but they are in favor of winning this case in international courts. The plebiscite is just a formula with which the regime tries to legitimize itself. The validity of the plebiscite process is so questionable that in the three official announcements of results, the number of voters and yes votes did not match. You could say that even traps are no good.

“If just one Venezuelan soldier enters Guyana to retake Essequibo, the days of the Maduro regime will be numbered, just as the Argentine military junta did in the Malvinas Islands.”

No one is ruling out war in the region if the Caracas regime finds itself in need of one as presidential elections approach. But at the same time, the risk is enormous, since the sanctions that will fall on Venezuela will be devastating, and the predicted military failure will be very strong: Guyana has the support of the United States and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, Venezuela, which although maintains its territorial claims, does not have the support to go to war for this reason. Nobody wants a war in one of the most important oil producing and exporting countries that could be pitted against another important country like Guyana.

Essequibo is rich in bauxite, gold, diamonds, copper, iron, uranium and manganese. So, we are not talking about a “piece of the jungle”, as you might think. While the historical claims have nothing to do with oil or the natural resources themselves, perhaps Maduro’s current position does, especially after the most important oil fields were discovered off the coast of Essequibo and Guyana. Was Hugo Chavez which lowered the tone of territorial claims in 2004 to such an extent that there were those who called it a “surrender”.

In conclusion, it will be interesting to keep an eye on what happens in Essequibo, and even more so if there is any potential for saber rattling. It is theoretically unlikely that a Venezuelan invasion of Guyanese territory will occur, but sometimes necessity calls for desperate measures. One thing is clear: if even one Venezuelan soldier enters Guyana, the days of the Maduro regime will be numbered, as were the days of the Argentine military junta when it lost in the Falkland Islands. There is a Venezuelan expression that says, “The sun of Venezuela rises through the Essequibo,” and it will be interesting to see whether the Maduro regime sinks, instead of rises, into the Essequibo River.

Guillem Pursals He is a Doctor of Law, Master of Security, and a specialist in conflict, public security and state theory.