In November, the labor market experienced what at first glance might seem a contradictory phenomenon: the number of unemployed fell, which may indicate more hiring, but the number of contracts signed is lower than those recorded in October, according to data published by the Ministry of Labor. In particular, they signed 40,221 fewer contracts unemployment decreased by 24,573 people.

This is not the first time this has happened this year. As can be seen in the graph, between months March and April Hiring and unemployment also fell. The same thing happened between June and JulyUnemployment fell and the number of contracts was lower in the seventh month compared to the previous month.

It is worth remembering that unemployment, measured State Public Employment Service (SEPE) and whose data is published monthly by the Ministry of Labor, corresponds to the number of people who register as job seekers in the public administration. This means that the image created by this figure does not include all unemployed people or even those actively seeking it, but only those who report their situation to SEPE.

Manuel Hidalgo, professor of economics at Pablo de Olavide University, explains to the newspaper that this “disconnection” also occurs in temporal terms. That is, it may take several weeks for someone who has lost their job to register as a claimant, meaning there may be temporary imbalances in the statistics.

On the other hand, taking into account the mentioned features of the unemployment data, it is worth emphasizing that These are two pieces of data—employment and unemployment—that change at different rates and are not directly related., the same as with membership, as happened in the months during which jobs are created, that is, membership grows and, however, unemployment increases. “There is no correlation,” Hidalgo sums up.

“With affiliations, for example, we must also take into account people who can move from inactivity to employment,” recalls professor of economics at the University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU and director of the Isaac Foundation. Sarah de la Rica. In this sense, he emphasizes that it is necessary to take into account the “willingness” of the unemployed to look for work. That is, their position in relation to the profession may not change, but they may stop looking for it for various reasons, for example, devoting themselves to teaching or caring.

For this reason, sources in the Ministry of Labor believe that the Survey of the Active Population (EPA), published quarterly by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), provides clearer data on the number of people who are unemployed, regardless of job registration. office.

According to sources, the decline in the number of unemployed in November can be explained by several factors. An example would be people who haven’t updated their job application and who disappear as unemployed for SEPE, although they continue to remain in the same situation. Or, as mentioned above, people who have decided to stop looking for work to study or are unable to work for some other reason.

Economist from Pablo de Olavide University rules out that this is a “specific event” and believes that “it has nothing to do with the attitude towards SEPE” and the administration’s ability to find work. However, there are studies that show that in times of economic prosperity, unemployed people are encouraged to register with SEPE with the intention of finding a job. The number of unemployed is also increasing, but this does not mean the destruction of employment. if the government announces measures that registered people will be able to benefit from at the employment office, according to Labor Party sources.

In any case, sources interviewed emphasize that membership has risen again in a month when expectations already suggested a decline in the number of new jobs. Although it should be noted that this was done taking into account seasonal variations. Specifically, Social Security lost 11,583 branches in November, a lower-than-usual loss for that month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted increase of about 10,350 branches. Given these figures, Manuel Hidalgo believes that we will have to wait a few months to analyze whether there really is a gap between the number of contracts signed and the number of unemployed people counted by SEPE.