The Minister of Economy and Finance of the Government of Navarre, and now the Minister of Social Security, Elma Saiz speaks to the media in Madrid. Archive image.
He hasn’t been to any swimming pool. This is the only new acquisition among the major economic ministries, which will continue to be led by the same ministers from the previous legislature. But just because you’re new and have no experience in pensions doesn’t exempt you from tax. Elma Saiz the need to protect the pension reform developed by Escrivá and not transfer its management to the Basque Country, and possibly other autonomies.
At the same time, the fifteenth legislative body of the country, Yolanda Diaz will continue to lead work; Maria Jesús Montero, Minister of Finance and Public Functions; Nadia Calviño will continue to lead economic affairs, which includes the trade and business portfolios previously included in industry, while digital transformation, which leaves the economy as an independent ministry, will be led by former Social Security Minister José Luis Escriva. head. It is no secret that this is just an interim step and that Escrivá will become economy minister if Calviño is elected president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in December.
He team of economic ministers It will be continuous, with the exception of some minor changes in the portfolios: Isabel Rodríguez leaves the Ministry of Territorial Policy and will head the Housing Department, a department separate from transport and mobility, now headed by the former mayor of Valladolid, Oscar Puente, replacing him. Raquel Sanchez. Planas continues to hold the post of Minister of Agriculture, but Hector Gomez leaves the post of Industry Minister and is replaced by the former mayor of Barcelona, Jordi Jereu. And consumption ceases to be a ministry in itself and is integrated into Social Rights and the 2030 Agenda, led by Pablo Bustinduy, the only minister of Zumara who will have more or less an economic portfolio along with Yolanda Diaz.
Elma Saiz will become head of social security at the suggestion of Maria Civite, President of Navarre. The tax and economics expert has no experience in pensions, but she is the party’s most trusted voice and is pursuing an ambition to give the Council of Ministers a more political tone. Pedro Sánchez supported her in presenting her candidacy for mayor of Pamplona last April, when she left her post as Navarre’s Minister of Economy and had previously led the Navarro Institute for Equality and the Family and was a government delegate along with José Luis. Rodriguez Zapatero.
His resume is very short. She has a law degree and a master’s degree in tax counseling, speaks limited English and good French. private sector career practically unknown. The biography of Saiz released by the government does not include any classified position, and the one that appears on the website of the Navarre executive only mentions that she began working in 1999 for the legal consulting company IMEL as a managing partner and with with whom she collaborated. holds a Master’s degree in Business Law and a Master’s degree in Tax Consulting from the University of Navarra.
This career contrasts with that of Escriva, his predecessor, who was chosen for his strong technical profile after leading the Tax Administration, as well as the research service of BBVA and the monetary policy department of the European Central Bank.
An assessment of pension reform will appear in 2025
Saiz’s reticent stance might make sense given that pension reform had already been designed, approved and implemented by his predecessor. However, the new minister will have to face constant reform assessments that the government itself has agreed that they will be carried out by the Fiscal Office and that they will begin in 2025. This year will be the first in which the adjustment spending mechanism included in this year’s law could be triggered, a famous safety clause that plans to further increase employee benefits if the proposed measures are not enough to offset the increase in planned spending.
As this publication explained last week, the European Commission itself has just joined AIReF and the Bank of Spain in deeming social security forecasts too optimistic. In this case, economic forecasts form a very important part of pension reform, since income growth will be linked to employment, which is linked to economic growth.
The ministry today forecasts that the rate will be reduced to 5.5% between now and 2050, when the entire generation is expected to retire. baby boom -the widest in Spanish history-, while the Commission expects it to be 6.4%, and these differences are also important throughout the rest of the horizon. The same is true for GDP estimates: the government expects growth of about 5% per year between now and 2030 and the Commission expects 0.8%, while in 2050 the Executive expects growth of 3.5% and the Commission expects growth of 3.5%. 1.3%.
Transfer of control to the Basque Country
Another “hot issue” that Sais suggests will be the transfer of social security management to the Basque Country, as agreed by the PSOE and PNV in their agreement to install Sánchez. Today, the PNV was the only party that managed to convince the President, in exchange for the votes of his five deputies in Congress, to agree to what they also demanded. Jants and ERC in their political programs. Something they will also presumably be demanding over the next few years, although it is impossible to predict what importance they will give to it and when they will bring the issue to the fore.
Catalan nationalist formations sought to take the first step towards “promote our own pension system” with the creation of the Catalan Social Security Agency. Actually, this is exactly how it looks in the text that the ERC and the “Junts” registered in the regional parliament in early November as part of the conclusion of the commission to study the historical debt of the state.
At the moment, the agreement between Sanchez and NVG involves the transfer just an economic regime social security in the Basque Country for a maximum period of two years. The PNV has always maintained that it must take over the management of the economic social security regime, as recognized in paragraph 18.2 of the Guernica Statute.
But the opposition’s fears are that this could be the first step for Euskadi to finally take full responsibility for social services on its territory, which would make it possible to break the single fund into which they go. contributions from workers and which are then used to pay pensions for the entire country – and to set pensions of varying sizes and possibly financed by their own taxes. Moreover, in total they ten statutes of autonomy which cover the administration of social security, which opens the door to an avalanche of demands following the promised transfer to the Basque Country.
On the other hand, it should be remembered that Escriva will not leave the pension entirely in the hands of Sais, since if what seems obvious today is carried out, in a few months will take over the economic affairs portfolio – either because Nadia Calviño is resigning as president of the European Investment Bank (EIB) or because she ends up at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -. And from there it could well control, albeit in the shadows, all policies carried out in relation to pensions, since it is the largest of all economic ministries.
Source: El Independiente