He Capricorn 35 It is installed at 9600 points and looks up. In other words: a selective Spaniard flirts with annual highs despite the political instability caused by the amnesty for independents and which ultimately resulted in votes in favor of Ezquerra and Juntes to swear in Pedro Sánchez as president.

Traditionally, global stock markets suffer from domestic political earthquakes. This happened in Spain with escalating tensions in Catalonia during the unilateral declaration of independence back in 2014. Ibex 35 and several companies fell sharply due to political instability. Italy, the UK with Brexit and Greece have also suffered first-hand from the flight of investors from major Spanish companies.

But far from a possible earthquake on the Spanish stock market, the Ibex 35 index has been growing for several sessions in a row. Moreover, in some cases this was done with enormous force. Over the past week, Ibex 35 has added more than 1.2% in just one session, showing strength.

“We do not exclude that in the short term, after two weeks of strong growth, European and US stock markets will take a breather in the coming days and take advantage of consolidating gains,” says Juan J. Fernandez. -Figares of Link Gestión, “Investors are waiting for the start of the Christmas shopping season, which, as we have already noted, officially begins at the end of next week, a season that we understand may largely determine the annual closing trend of these markets. »

The Spanish stock market rose 0.28% on Thursday and approached 9,700 points. The benchmark national market index added 26.7 points, or 0.28%, to 9,667.4, up 27.3 points from its one-year high on July 27.

Ibex 35 is up 15% this year and analysts expect 2024 to be much better. Analysts at Banco Santander forecast growth of up to 9% over the next 12 months.

Bankinter is also positive and states: “The outlook for 2024 is encouraging, despite expected business profit growth of -6.2%. This is due to two reasons: we have lowered expectations for Spanish 10-year bond issuance for December 2024 and a general improvement in target prices from an upward perspective.”

But why doesn’t political instability affect Ibex 35? This is mainly due to the international economic context, the oil market and, above all, the fact that investors are no longer taking into account the possible consequences of the government of Pedro Sánchez.

This is a case of shocks that the banking, energy or telecommunications sectors have already experienced. “When taxes on large companies were announced, Ibex 35 was already affected. What Pedro Sanchez repeats does not change anything because it goes without saying,” financial sources say.

Different opinions

“The variable income does not take into account the color of the party in the government, but its stability, and it is very difficult for a government like the current Sánchez to convey this stability, not only because of the demands of the independents because it does not have a majority in the Senate, because it does not have a very large parts of autonomous communities that are governed by the People’s Party and are causing a lot of instability,” says analyst Antonio Castelo from Investment Strategies.

Another reason why Ibex 35 has also hit the accelerator is macroeconomic data. Inflation in Spain and the US is lower than expected, which is good for stocks. In addition, the stability of the risk premium played a fundamental role. The index is located at 105 basis pointswhat allowed the Spanish selection to take wing.

The stability of prices for a barrel of oil contributed to maintaining relative calm in financial markets. This means that it remains the determining factor in containing any excessive fluctuations in the Ibex 35, regardless of any policy proposals of any kind. At the beginning of the Gaza war, this caused stability in the price of crude oil, but it seems to have calmed down and its price is around 75 euros.

However, Gisela Turazzini, an analyst at BlackBird Capital, emphasizes that the good tone of the Ibex index compared to the rest of the European indices is primarily due to the good performance of banks, electricity companies such as Endesa, Iberdrola, Inditex and construction companies. “This is a very internationalized index, with companies generating most of their profits outside Spain, so there is less political influence. But the weight of the banking sector and Inditex is especially important.”