Russian invasion of Ukraine This put the energy supply of the European Union under control, not especially for Spain, but for the countries that bought gas from Russia and which had to find alternative formulas to supply themselves. Now the world is waiting for another conflict, a war between Israel and Hamas, but economic consequences are different. The differences are explained by dependence on Russian gas, which does not happen with Israeli imports and, for the moment, with oil imports from the Persian Gulf countries.

Gas prices have risen sporadically since the Hamas attack earlier this month, but the figures are nowhere near those recorded at the start of the Russian invasion. “The growth over the last 15 days is incomparable, we are talking about an increase of about 8 or 10 euros,” he explains. Diego RodriguezFedea researcher and head of digital economy and energy.

It should be noted that although gas has risen in price on the futures market, the price per megawatt-hour is about 50 euros, while it reached 200 euros during the energy crisis last winter.

Since the initial attacks, uncertainty has caused tension in energy markets. However, over time and as the conflict progressed, prices have become more moderate.

Now, The point is not only that the European Union does not depend on gas sold by Israel.But also, the conflict has erupted at a time when European reserves are at their highest. Already in August of this year reserves of member countries reached 90%. In Spain the situation is even more favorable: gas reserves amount to 97%.

“In recent months we have gone through a process of changing supply sources, so the situation is calm at the moment. If we are facing a harsh winter, there may be some tension, but if it is mild, with supplies at their maximum, we are likely to see prices fall between March and April next year,” the economist explains in the report. conversation with El Independente. .

Impact of war on oil

As for oil, Brent also rose in price in the early days, but for now it remains below $100 per barrel. Over the past week, the price has risen to $91 per barrel. Texas oil fell to $83.74 on Tuesday.

Analysts agree that The impact of the conflict on the oil market was “moderate”While price escalation could occur “if the US or Iran becomes involved in a conflict,” they argue that Investing.com. “They talk about the risk that the blockade of the strait Hormuzbut this is already moving into the realm of speculation,” adds researcher Fedea.

The latest EU bulletin recorded a decline in prices for both diesel fuel and gasoline. Diesel fuel fell in price by 1.5% to 1656 euros per liter and gasoline fell more strongly, by 2.3% to 1679 euros per liter.

As this newspaper writes, the economic consequences of the war between Israel and Palestine will depend on many factors. Not only how long the conflict lasts, but also which side the countries take. Nomura warns that “any direct Iranian involvement will make the situation worse” as it could mean more sanctions from the US, which in turn would impact crude oil exports, which would be more expensive.

Economists Bloomberg they expect that Oil could reach $150 a barrel if there is a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel. In addition to rising oil prices, this scenario would result in losses of one trillion dollars worldwide and a recession of 1.7%. The fall would have been the worst since 1982 if the impact of Covid and the financial crisis had not been taken into account. The impact on the economy will be incalculable.

However, analysts agree that while tensions could escalate at any time, the situation is very different from Ukraine, and therefore the economic impact is more moderate for now.