A child’s chances of rising socially and having an income higher than their parents upon reaching adulthood may differ in Brazil depending on where they were born.

Children from poor families are only 2.5% likely to reach the top in Brazil – Photo: Marcello Casal/Arquivo/Agência Brasil

In the Belém, Pennsylvania metropolitan area, there is a 63% chance that a child from a below-average income family in Brazil will remain in the same range at adulthood, almost six times more than in the Florianopolis metropolitan area. where this number drops to 11.2%.

The conclusion is made by researchers associated with the UFPE (Federal University of Pernambuco) about intergenerational mobility in Brazil, as reported by the newspaper Valor Econômico.

The study, titled Intergenerational Mobility in a Land of Inequality, estimates that children from a family in the country’s poorest 20% will remain in the same stratum upon reaching adulthood at 46.1%. The chance of succeeding and rising to the top of the Brazilian income pyramid is only 2.5%.

The work also shows in numbers that the best chance of becoming rich in Brazil is to be born rich: 48.5% of children from families in the top 20% tend to stay in that range. The chance that one of them will go down to the base of the pyramid is 4%.

The study shows that cities in the center-south generally perform better than cities in the north and northeast. In particular, the municipalities of the hinterland of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, as well as cities in the Midwest that experienced “agricultural boom”.

In Sorriso, Montana, a child born among the bottom 20% has a 29% chance of staying in that group. In Joinville and New Hamburgo (South Carolina) it reaches 15.7% and 17.8%, respectively.

The economists compared data from the census, the Rais (Annual List of Social Information), Cadastro Único and other official sources with the administrative records of the Federal Tax Office, provided in accordance with the obligation to maintain fiscal secrecy.

Through this, they were able to trace the trajectory of the 1.3 million Brazilians born between 1988 and 1990 and compare their income between the ages of 25 and 31 with the family income of the previous generation.

Migration can change the scenario

The results provide the first insight into the determinants of mobility in Brazil. Among the main candidates are education, as well as infrastructure, the economy and public safety.

The study concluded that migration can greatly change the scenario. In absolute terms, if the Brazilian income distribution were measured on a scale from zero to 100, a child born at level 25 in Brazil would reach, on average, level 35 as an adult. In Florianopolis this score rises to 46. In Belém, the expected average mobility is zero.

However, if a child born in Belém migrates to Florianopolis shortly after birth, he can claim 57% of the difference between the average results of the two cities. Thus, she would no longer have zero mobility expectations and would reach step 37 in 24 years.

Contrary to popular belief, large urban centers are not the best choice for poor families who want their children to grow up in life.

In the São Paulo Metropolitan Region (SP), a child born below the median income is 44.4% likely to remain in the same stratum. In Rio de Janeiro (RJ) – 30.1%.

On the other hand, the odds are in favor of the children of the richest 20%. In both cities, the chance of staying at the top of the income pyramid is 67.4% and 63%, respectively.