Wooed and then spurned by the world’s richest man, Twitter looks set to win its legal battle with Elon Musk for a fine of at least $1 billion, but the social network will not remain unscathed.

Elon Musk said there was no information about fake profiles and refused a $ 44 billion deal – Photo: Reproduction / @ ElonMusk / ND

The deal “started like a circus and will end like a circus,” Dan Ives, an analyst at investment firm Wedbush, told AFP.

Musk, the founder of electric vehicle company Tesla, tweeted on Friday that he was pulling out of a controversial deal he made in April to buy the platform at $54.20 a share, or a total of 54. $20 per share, $44 billion.

However, these merger deals “are designed to ensure that the buyers don’t back off and decide to leave,” says Ann Lipton, a Tulane University law professor who specializes in corporate litigation.

Musk, who also heads aerospace company SpaceX, accused the social network of spreading “false or misleading claims” about the number of fake accounts on its platform.

His lawyers also pointed out that Twitter has fired employees and stopped hiring, which they say is in conflict with the company’s obligation to continue operating normally.

Those arguments may be valid, but they don’t guarantee a total exit from the deal, Lipton says, calling the move a “slam.”

“They are not enough unless he can prove that the allegations (about false reports) are not only false, but also affect the fundamental foundations of the agreement,” he explains.

– “Twitter is dead” –

There is even a possibility that the billionaire is actually trying to negotiate a lower price.

This tactic has been used successfully before, for example, when LVMH, the global luxury goods giant, pulled out of a deal to acquire Tiffany two years ago before getting a discount.

However, experts do not see how Musk and Twitter can agree on a different price at this stage, since the platform’s shares have lost more than a quarter of their value since the end of April.

“Both have something to lose,” Lipton warns.

If Twitter wins the lawsuit, the businessman will have to pay at least a billion dollars in damages.

In the worst case scenario, he could be forced to fulfill his obligation to buy Twitter at a price that has become prohibitive, while his fortune has dried up by tens of billions of dollars in recent months.

While that would be a win for shareholders, the company would be in the hands of Musk and his libertarian vision of absolute freedom of expression, a position not shared by many of its employees, users and advertisers.

“Twitter is worse now than it was six months ago, but in the long run it will be better without it,” said Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Creative Strategies.

“It’s like a toy that a spoiled kid wants but doesn’t know what to do with, so he gets bored and doesn’t pay enough attention to it and forgets it in the corner (…) Twitter will die a slow and painful death,” — he predicts.